Saturday, September 19, 2009

How funny money will keep this rally going, and why M2 tells us how it will end | The Precision Report

How funny money will keep this rally going, and why M2 tells us how it will end | The Precision Report

The Sowers of the Thunder | Uncommon Wisdom

The Sowers of the Thunder | Uncommon Wisdom
CRACK-UP BOOM
Austrian Economist, Von Mises:

This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then, finally, the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against 'real' goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Ten Bubbles in the Making: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

Ten Bubbles in the Making: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

1. China Bubble
2. Green Bubble
3. Gold Bubble
4. Federal Reserve Bubble
5. Trash Stock Bubble
6. Education Bubble
7. Subprime Bubble
8. Life insurance Securitization Bubble
9. Commercial Real Estate Bubble
10. Emerging Market Bubble

Unboxed - Creating Quant Models That Are Closer to Reality - NYTimes.com

Unboxed - Creating Quant Models That Are Closer to Reality - NYTimes.com

Wall Street’s Math Wizards Forgot a Few Variables